Book Review: The Hinge Factor

Short version: The book analyzes 17 key battles ranging from 1184BC to 1991AD where combinations of luck and/or incompetence made the difference between a victory and a defeat.

Erik Durschmied’s analysis of these 17 battles is rightly summed up in the sub-title: How Chance and Stupidity Have Changed History. Each of the battles he writes about, from the ancient battle of Troy with its infamous Trojan Horse to Desert Storm of the 90’s, could have been dramatically different based on a tiny “hinge factor”. The hinge factor in the majority of the battles covered in the book was a fatal combination of arrogance, stupidity, and sheer incompetence.

The dissection of the battles is fascinating. Each chapter covered a particular battle. The end of each chapter contains a summary that asks and answers a couple of what-if questions, gives some facts on the battle’s significance in a big picture perspective, and of course, the hinge factor.

My sole complaint about the book would be that some of the author’s conclusions seemed grandiose in scope. This complaint is considerably blunted by the fact that the author’s seemingly meticulous research trumps my own intuition. I imagine that predicting the course of history is tricky business for the best of scholars, and I make no claims that I could produce a better forecasting of my own.

Overall, an interesting and worthwhile read.

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